It’s not impossible your favorite MLB team down 0-1 will come back…
but it’s kinda close enough.
MLB’s One And Dones?
What Happened: Major League Baseball’s postseason kicked off yesterday with four Wild Card games. Your Game 1 winners: the Tigers over the Astros, the Royals downed the Orioles, Mets over Brewers in the day’s highest scoring affair, and the Padres eased by Atlanta in the nightcap.
So, now we know who is advancing to the Division Series, yes? Maybe…
Why It Matters: There have been 16 best-of-three Wild Card Series in MLB’s playoff history. The team that has won Game 1 has advanced a whopping 14 times. So, yeah, things are looking bleak for Houston, Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Atlanta.
Based on those numbers, are any of these teams worth taking a flyer on? Unsurprisingly, none of yesterday’s losers are plus-money plays to advance to the Division Series, despite the Brewers, Astros, and Orioles all maintaining home-field advantage.
The Astros do pique some interest however at +148 to take the next two games against the Tigers. Houston’s roster is loaded with players who have playoff experience, something that, minus manager A.J. Hinch, Detroit is short on. (Of course, much of Hinch’s postseason experience came with…these very same Astros.)
Tarik Skubal pitched a gem in Game 1, but Hinch can’t turn to him again, and the starting depth behind the likely Cy Young Award winner is shallow. History doesn’t love any team to sweep two must-win games, but if you need to scratch that itch and pick one to ride with, it would be the Astros for us.
What We’re Watching Today
MLB Playoffs (2:30 PM ET) – Four do-or-die games on the slate today. For teams already down a game, it will be interesting to see how managers respond. They need to use every arm that’s available if a starter falters, so even if it leaves the team shorthanded for Thursday, decisions must be made with reckless abandon.
Champions League (3:00 PM ET) – Got some heavy hitters on the schedule today. Aston Villa takes on Bayern Munich, defending champions Real Madrid face Lille, and Bologna travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool.
The Look Ahead
Buccaneers at Falcons – With all the excitement around baseball, let’s not forget the NFL is back in action tomorrow with Thursday Night Football, as the Falcons host the Bucs in an NFC South divisional matchup. Betting on the game? Not without this info you aren’t:
🤕 If a boss of yours ever made you work overtime, you can relate to these NFL players forced to take to the field on short rest. And that quick turnaround time affects the game in real ways: Thursday Night Football games have gone under the total in three straight weeks. Use the sluggish nature of the game to your advantage folks.
🏴☠️ It’s a home game, so Atlanta should be more comfortable, right? Even that’s debatable. The Bucs have come in and plundered the Falcons consistently despite being the road team, winning four of the last five times these teams met in Atlanta. That’s a nest that could use a security upgrade.
🏅 The Falcons haven’t been able to contain the Bucs at home, and neither can the oddsmakers. Over its last 11 games, Tampa Bay is 8-3 against the spread, making them a potentially attractive bet as a slight road dog.
📈 QB Kirk Cousins is clearly getting more comfortable in his new offense after a Week 1 stinker against the Steelers. Cousins has thrown for 241, 230, and 238 yards the past three weeks, with a line for tomorrow night of 228.5. Bijan Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury, which might place an even bigger emphasis on the Falcons passing game in this one, making for a big opportunity for Cousins.
