The race for playoff spots is heating up in MLB…
…while NFL teams may want to avoid the Hall of Fame game.
MLB’s Crowded Playoff Picture
What Happened: Now that the trade deadline has passed, what you see is more or less what you’ll get from MLB teams down the stretch. Injuries and call-ups occur, but with less than two months of regular season play remaining, these are the rosters we’re working with.
Perusing the standings and using FanGraphs’ playoff odds led to two interesting observations that might create opportunities for savvy sports bettors. (And if you are reading this, surely you count yourself among that group.)
Why It Matters: The NL West and AL Central are baseball’s two divisions that seem most primed to benefit from MLB’s expanded playoff system.
Entering play on Friday, three teams from each of those divisions had better than 50% odds to qualify for the postseason; in the AL Central, three teams are actually over 60%.
If a team from each league constitutes half of the playoff field, it seems like a good idea to bet on not just one of those teams, but the division to win the World Series. Luckily, you can do just that if so inclined.
Per FanDuel, you can get an NL West team to become champion at +270 odds, while the AL Central is a longer shot at +700.
The NL West benefits from having the Dodgers, the team with the best individual odds to win this season’s World Series (15.2%, per FanGraphs.) But in the AL, where the Yankees aren’t the powerhouse they seemed to be in April and May and the Orioles are a young team maybe not quite ready for the pressure of the playoffs, giving yourself three bites at the apple with the Guardians, Twins, and Royals increases your chances in a playoff system that doesn’t always reward the regular season champ.
How We’re Feeling Today
Doubting that we need a Hall of Fame game anymore.
Last night’s battle between the Texans and Bears didn’t even finish three quarters because of…rain? Please don’t tell us the NFL is now going soft!
You’ll recall that in 2016, the game was cancelled because of poor field conditions. And when this game does take place, the product on the field isn’t very compelling.
Backups on offense struggling to find any sort of rhythm, players you actually want to watch standing on the sidelines in shorts, sloppy play all around. Let Hall of Fame inductions stand on their own, but there’s probably no need to hitch a too-early preseason game to that happy occasion at this point.
The Look Ahead
Valente Bellozo STRIKEOUTS – Bellozo is making his third MLB start today, so we can’t say we know a ton about him. But here are two factors that make us think he could be a play with a line of 3.5 strikeouts for his start against Atlanta. The first is that Bellozo is coming off an eight strikeout performance against the Red Sox, so we know he can rack em up. The other is that Atlanta has been swinging and missing a lot recently. A lot a lot. In the last nine games, Atlanta has stuck out in the double-digits six times, and the other three games, they struck out nine times. Four strikeouts doesn’t feel like asking too much from Bellozo with that in mind, does it?
