It’s still only Week 3 in the NFL, but for some teams, optimism is fading fast.
Here’s why it could be time to panic.
Make Or Break Week 3?
What Happened: As an NFL team, playing your most consequential game in September is the sign of a failed season. They don’t give out the big shiny football trophy until the calendar flips to a new year, after all.
But for some teams, Week 3’s result is going to have massive consequences. Let’s run through which teams have the most on the line, and what a win or loss would mean for the rest of their season.
Why It Matters: We know we’ll have at least two teams still undefeated for another week, as the 2-0 Vikings and 2-0 Texans face off on Sunday, as do the Chargers and Steelers. Since the NFL-AFL merger, teams that started 3-0 have made the playoffs over 70% of the time, and 21 (of 158 teams) ended up lifting the Lombardi Trophy. We wouldn’t say to book any of those teams on February flights to New Orleans just yet, but banking wins early in the season often leads to playoff appearances.
On the flip side, starting 0-3 almost surely sinks a team. No team has ever lost three straight to start a season and ended it as champs; since 2000, only one team even made the postseason after such a start. (The 2018 Texans, who were promptly handed a loss in the Wild Card Round.)
Not good news for the Ravens, Bengals, Rams, and any AFC South team that doesn’t employ C.J. Stroud, although oddsmakers don’t seem to be in a panic about the winless teams in the AFC North. Both the Ravens (-140) and Bengals (-145) are seen as likely playoff participants; there’s little respect out there for the 2-0 Steelers, who are at +115. And it might already be over for Los Angeles, whose odds to make the playoffs are +475, equalling the Commanders. (Never a positive sign.)
It will still feel like we are learning things about these teams after Week 3, but the numbers don’t lie— the table can be set for success down the line, but not guaranteed. Or, the season can slip away before we even hit October.
What We’re Watching Today
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET) – Works better as a Rose Bowl matchup, but we’ll definitely be tuning into this one regardless. The Wolverines’ QB change (and just…telling their opponent about it?) is the big story here.
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET) – Welcome to the SEC, Sooners! Tennessee has blown out its three opponents so far this season, but is still not viewed as one of the heavies in its own conference. A win here by Josh Heupel’s team would absolutely be a statement.
Lions at Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET) – Many have advanced Detroit to the Super Bowl in their own 2024 sims, but needing overtime to beat the Rams and then dropping a game to the Bucs has raised some questions early in the season. Meanwhile, Arizona pushed Buffalo to its limit in Week 1 and throttled the Rams in Week 2. This Cardinals team is cooking something up.
The Look Ahead
Justin Verlander STRIKEOUTS – We checked Verlander for a couple of plays, including outs recorded (17.5) but think his strikeout line (5.5) is a better play. The future HOFer has made five starts since returning from injury and has looked not great Bob. He’s now a major question mark as Houston readies for playoff baseball, and in four of his five starts since neck pain sidelined him, he hasn’t topped even three strikeouts. He simply doesn’t look right, and against a team that ranks outside the top-10 in Ks, fading Verlander feels like a smart play.
