Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Patriots…
Can tonight at least provide a spark of excitement?
A Post-Belichick World
What Happened: Before NFL training camps even began, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the New England Patriots a 21.9% chance of, uh earning(?) the no.1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
What was the best-case scenario for the Pats to avoid such a fate? Well, having a new coach always generates buzz and optimism. Drafting a highly-touted quarterback with the third overall pick is a potentially fast way to accelerate the rebuild. And having one of the NFL’s most consistent pass rushers is a nice start.
Let’s check in on all of that as the Patriots prepare to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in preseason tonight.
Why It Matters: We can start with the least-negative here: no one knows what kind of head coach Jerod Mayo will be, so there’s no reason to be particularly down on him at this point.
The premium defender we mentioned? Whoops. The Pats shipped out Matthew Judon to Atlanta yesterday after the two parties were unable to find middle ground on a new contract. New England had a strong defense even with Judon missing all but four games last season, but subtracting a player who racked up 15.5 sacks in 2022 probably won’t be a net-positive.
As for that quarterback selection? We should get a decent look tonight at Drake Maye, who played sparingly (and with backups) in the first preseason game. Perhaps Maye dazzles, earns the job, and defies the +3500 odds to capture Rookie of the Year honors. But reviews have been mixed out of training camp, and there’s no indication Maye is really even making vet Jacoby Brissitt sweat in the fight for QB1 honors.
More likely is that Maye takes this season to learn under Brissett, who provides a competent floor but limited ceiling to a team with by far the worst odds to win the AFC East at +2000. For a team that seemed to be headed towards a rough season to begin with, things are only getting bleaker.
What We’re Watching Today
Nationals at Phillies (6:40 PM ET) – If Zack Wheeler is going to give Chris Sale a run at the NL Cy Young award, he’ll need to put up nothing but dominant performances down the stretch, maybe even throw in a no-hitter or something. Facing the weak-batted Nats is a good start.
Eagles at Patriots (7:00 PM ET) – We know, it’s preseason, but football is football. Drake Maye should play more, which could be fun? Nick Sirianni doesn’t play to win in these games, but maybe he’ll blow up at a New England fan or something.
The Look Ahead
Matt Olson TOTAL BASES – Atlanta’s first baseman has been hot at the plate recently; he carries a six-game hitting streak into today’s action, with three homers and two multi-hits game during this heater. Olson has also ripped six hits off of Giants starter Logan Webb in 19 at-bats, including a double and a dinger. Webb leads the NL in innings pitched, so Olson should get several cracks at eclipsing his 0.5 total bases line for today.
