Things aren’t off to a great start in the City of Brotherly Love…
New York, on the other hand, is Playoff Town.
Health Woes In Philly
What Happened: The 76ers used this offseason to acquire their long-awaited second star to run with Joel Embiid. When Paul George became available via free agency, general manager Daryl Morey pounced. Throw George into a lineup with Embiid and emerging star in his own right Tyrese Maxey, and you have a bonafide contender from the East.
Unless…
Why It Matters: Forgive us if you’ve heard this, but injuries in Philly are already at a concerning level.
George is dealing with a bone bruise in his left knee; he and the team are saying all the right things about it (“not too concerned about it”, “everything checks out OK”), but George is 34 with past injury woes.
As for Embiid, it sounds like his foot won’t be fully on the gas this regular season. He told ESPN he would probably “never play back-to-backs the rest of my career”, and is focused on being healthy come playoff time. Morey said George too is unlikely to play many back-to-backs.
What does that mean for the Sixers’ projected win total, currently set at 50.5 at FanDuel?
Well, if Embiid isn’t chasing individual hardware and he and George forego the second game of back-to-backs, that would account for at least 15 missed games. With the defending champion Celtics and an all-in Knicks team to contend with in the East, the 76ers might just settle for 47 wins and a fifth seed if that means their chances at a title bump up.
What We’re Watching Today
Dodgers at Mets (8:38 PM ET) – Perhaps the Mets will feel better about Luis Severino (7 runs allowed in 12.0 innings this postseason) when they take a look at what L.A.’s Walker Buehler has done. The Dodgers righty got lit up for 6 runs vs. San Diego in his only playoff start this year, and now faces down a New York lineup that’s averaging 5.0 runs a game in October.
Liberty at Lynx (8:00 PM ET) – After dropping Game 1 at home in disastrous fashion, the Liberty look to return the favor to Minnesota and earn a road victory in Game 3. New York won Game 2 by 14 points and had an 18-point lead evaporate into an OT loss in the series opener. Incredible series so far!
The Look Ahead
It’s never too early to start on tomorrow’s homework. Here are some trends we’re eyeing ahead of Thursday’s Broncos-Saints showdown:
📊 Over the last three seasons, rookie QBs have covered against the spread (ATS) in 71 of 120 games (60%). This season, that percentage is even better at 70%, as new passers have a 14-6 ATS record so far in 2024.
👶 Exhibit A: Bo Nix, who has led the Broncos to successful covers in four of his six starts. But something will have to give on Thursday, as the Saints are likely to start Spencer Rattler under center, another rookie.
📉 Despite New Orleans going off for point totals of 47 and 44 already this season, Broncos-Saints over/under is set at just 37 points. When the O/U comes in under 40 points on TNF, games have gone under 20 of 27 times since 2017. Good defense or sloppy play? We don’t know or care; that’s a lot of profit to be made!
