Looking to nail your World Series wager?
Here’s what to look for in a winner; it may not be what you’re used to.
The Pen Is Mightier In October
What Happened: What wins baseball games in June and July is not necessarily what wins them in October (and November, and yes, the MLB schedule needs to wrap things up on or before Halloween, something that’s being worked on.)
Having a Gerrit Cole or a Tarik Skubal taking the ball every fifth day in the regular season is a comfort. But in the playoffs, when the schedule condenses, starting pitchers are de-emphasized (or hurt, as is the case with Chris Sale) and bullpens become the dominant force in these series.
Why It Matters: Well, if you are laying some coin on these MLB playoffs, don’t get distracted by staff aces and workhorse starters. Instead, look to the back end of a team’s pitching staff.
The Guardians lead the pack in this regard, with the best bullpen ERA in the majors by more than a half-run. But the bats are a concern, and their +1100 odds to win it all this season (just sixth-best despite finishing in second place in the American League) show a lack of faith by the sportsbooks.
Another team powered by its bullpen is Milwaukee. After all, trading away Corbin Burnes isn’t gonna improve your starting pitching. The Brew Crew led the NL in bullpen ERA and have star closer Devin Williams to shorten games. This team would look much scarier with Christian Yelich in the lineup; with the star done for the season, it’s a +2000 longshot despite those elite bullpen arms.
Which leads us to the Padres. Unlike Cleveland and Milwaukee, San Diego is not built around its bullpen. Instead, A.J. Preller stacked his lineup with slugging stars and a few front-line starters to begin. The bullpen was the final piece of the puzzle, but a major one since the trade deadline. A healthy Padres team, which has the fifth-best odds at +850 despite being a Wild Card team, is a dangerous one, which it is heading into October baseball. And if the Friars do end up winning it all, don’t be surprised by how big a role Tanner Scott and Jason Adam play. They aren’t Tatis Jr. and Machado, but they are what’s needed for a postseason such as MLB’s.
What We’re Watching Today
Tigers at Astros (2:30 PM ET) – Tarik Skubal will need to will Detroit to a win here and get this out-of-nowhere Tigers team off on the right paw this series. Be a good person. Root for the Tigers.
Royals at Orioles (4:00 PM ET) – The Royals are one team that will feel confident in its starting pitching, less so in its bullpen. Speaking of, games such as this are why Baltimore traded for Corbin Burnes before the season. No pressure though pal.
Mets at Brewers (5:30 PM ET) – After a classic in yesterday’s first game of the doubleheader, the Mets now travel back to Milwaukee, where they dropped two of three over the weekend. They’ll need to shake off the celebration hangovers quickly.
Atlanta at Padres (8:30 PM ET) – Not sure about Atlanta’s chances here. We haven’t heard of this pitcher they are starting tonight, “Undecided”, and this is a big spot to be making a debut.
The Look Ahead
Luis Severino OUTS RECORDED – It’s a big ask out of Severino from manager Carlos Mendoza today. The Mets had to use Edwin Diaz for 40 pitches yesterday alongside Phil Maton in Game 1 of the doubleheader. And while low-leverage relievers Huascar Brazoban and Adam Ottavino were used in both games to keep other options available, the Amazin’s will hope to get premium mileage from their starter in this series opener before handing things over to a taxed and inconsistent bullpen. As a result, we are cautiously eyeing the over on Sevy’s 16.5 line for outs recorded later today.
