There’s a lot to unpack between the two rivals featured on Thursday Night Football this week…
We do our best to unpack what you need to know.
Pats-Jets Spread Opens Eyes
What Happened: Allow us a moment to get used to this new world we are in. The New York Jets are playing the New England Patriots…and are favored? By 6 points? (Or even 6.5, depending on your book.)
Sure, Bill Belichick is gone and Aaron Rodgers has made it more than one drive into the season, but still, this is a big change! It might even be an overcorrection.
Why It Matters: We already have evidence that NFL spreads have been too generous so far this season, as teams getting at least six points have gone 8-for-8 covering against the spread, and outright won in four of those games.
There’s also the history between these AFC East rivals. Before the Jets prevailed in a 17-3 contest in January last season, the Pats had beaten the team they love to hate 15 consecutive times. (And no, those weren’t all Tom Brady led wins either.) Some other interesting nuggets of info:
-New England has performed well as an underdog recently, covering in six straight, as well as covering in their last four road games.
-Don’t expect many points tonight; each of the last four times these teams have met, the under has hit.
We aren’t ready to declare Jerod Mayo as the second coming of the Hoodie or anything like that just yet. We’re just cautioning to remember how we got here, even if this feels like a new chapter in the Jets-Patriots rivalry.
What We’re Watching Today
Patriots at Jets (8:15 PM ET) – This one will be a real battle between the intensity that comes with two teams that hate each other playing on the national stage versus avoiding the sloppy, listless play that Thursday Night Football games so often feature. But still, we’ll get Al Michaels on the call, so we know it will at least sound good!
Champions League (3:00 PM ET) – Arsenal takes on Atalanta, but will have to do so without skipper Martin Odegaard, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Still, the Gunners fancy themselves contenders, so they’ll have to demonstrate they can overcome the loss. Also, it’s not everyone’s style, but Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid take on RB Leipzig. How will the masters of the dark arts incorporate new star striker Julian Alvarez? That will be fascinating to watch.
The Look Ahead
DeMario Douglas RECEIVING YARDS – This would certainly qualify as “buying low” after Douglas put up a stat line of nothing but zeros in last week’s overtime loss to Seattle. But let’s detail the reasons for optimism in taking the over on his 26.5-yards line for tonight: Douglas led all Patriots players in targets last season, and while his numbers this season are lacking, he is still posting excellent metrics in getting open, as illustrated by his top-20 ranking in Pro Football Focus’ “separation percentage” stat. Another big plus for Douglas? His coach knows he needs to be more involved in the game plan, as Jerod Mayo made clear to offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt this week. Douglas let it be known he wants more looks from QB Jacoby Brissett and the boss agrees, so we expect Douglas to be targeted plenty against a Jets defense that allowed 77 yards to Tennessee’s Calvin Ridley last week.
